The Moneyball Breakdown of Aetna-Humana Appeal Chances

Lawyers considering an appeal of Monday’s ruling that quashed Aetna Inc.'s proposed $37 billion merger with Humana Inc. should think twice.

To do so, Aetna lawyers would file an appeal with the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. But making a successful appeal unlikely, the judge who ruled on the case — John D. Bates, senior U.S. District Judge for the District of Columbia — has a pretty good record when it comes to the stickiness of his rulings.

I looked at Bates’ history in Bloomberg Law’s Litigation Analytics and found that when Bates’ decisions ...